2017, A Good Year Maybe
by Jonathan McGaha | 3 January 2017 12:00 am
Welcome to 2017! After the craziness of 2016, it feels kind of nice to move into a new year. Last year, we elected a billionaire with no political or military experience to the presidency, which was the first time in history that has happened. I think we can all agree Donald Trump’s election was maybe a bit unexpected. Clearly, the electorate wanted to move in a new path.
Equally unexpected was the World Series win by the Chicago Cubs. The Windy City is still glowing after that triumph, but clearly something is afoot. Moons are aligning, stars are in ascension, some unknown forces are acting on the events of the world.
The Trump election and the Cubs win show us anything is possible, and that’s both an exciting and frightening prospect, no matter what your political leanings or baseball devotions. Change at this high of an order can be unnerving.
For business owners, exciting and frightening prospects create a time of uncertainty, and if there were anything we would desperately want is a bit more certainty in our businesses. It would be nice, after the economic upheaval of the last 10 years, to have a more predictable future.
That said, most economists are predicting a fairly robust 2017.
(Check out the State of the Industry report on page 18.) The potential for a reduced corporate tax rate will spur growth, and rolled back regulations will help businesses control costs. That’s good for the construction industry, so 2017 seems like it’s rolling out to be a good year.
I don’t want to rain on that parade, but even with our generally positive view of the business environment moving into 2017, there are some real concerns in the world that could alter our trajectory drastically. North Korea is threatening. Terrorism has upended the Middle East and gained a greater foothold in Europe. Russia has ambitions to increase its territory. A cataclysmic international event could undo all the positive improvements economists anticipate from lower taxes and improved consumer confidence.
So, how do we plan our business strategies? The same way we respond at all other times. As a very smart business owner once said to me, “Take care of the downside, and the upside will take care of itself.” In other words, make sure you’re not overreaching and putting yourself in a vulnerable position. Yes, make capital improvements to be ready for business growth, but don’t overspend. When you plot out your worst-case and best-case scenarios, make sure you’re prepared for the worst case and that your push for best case doesn’t undermine that preparation.
I’m looking forward to 2017. Quite frankly, I was growing bone weary of the personality-driven coverage of politics. My fervent hope is that we can have fruitful policy discussions this year, but my hope may be unfounded. I think it’s unlikely we’ll get a good discussion of the pros and cons of lowering the corporate tax rate. The coverage likely will be couched entirely in terms of how the prospects of such a change will affect the political outcomes of the individuals contesting it. In that sense, we are all left out of the political discussion.
So, I’m going to keep my head down and push forward with the initiatives we have set up here at Modern Trade Communications. We’re excited about the prospects of bringing some new things to the market, and we feel we can help the industry grow and improve. Those are good things worth pursuing no matter what the environment around us is.
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