Construction employment holds strong despite economic shifts

by Christopher Brinckerhoff | 13 March 2024 6:00 am

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The not seasonally adjusted (NSA) national construction unemployment rate at 4.4 percent was unchanged in December from the previous year, according to a state-by-state analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data by Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC)[2]. The analysis also found that 25 states had lower unemployment rates over the same period, four were unchanged, and 21 were higher.

National NSA payroll construction employment was 230,000 higher than in December 2022. Starting in February 2022 through December, seasonally adjusted construction employment exceeded its pre-pandemic peak of 7.6 million.

In December, 31 states had lower construction unemployment rates compared to December 2019, three states’ rates (Missouri, Oklahoma, and Oregon) were unchanged, and 16 had higher rates.

“Continued high interest rates have been a drag on plans for new construction,” says Bernard Markstein, president and chief economist of Markstein Advisors, which conducted the analysis for ABC. “However, industry employment remains healthy, as builders work on their backlog of projects and employers fill some of their advertised positions. Nonresidential construction activity and employment is benefiting from federal funding and tax incentives for manufacturers, as well as funding for state and local infrastructure projects.”

National and state unemployment rates are best evaluated on a year-over-year basis because these industry-specific rates are NSA. However, due to the shifting effects on the economy from high interest rates, energy price fluctuations, and other national and international developments, month-to-month comparisons offer insight into the variable economic environment impact from these factors on construction employment.

In December 2023, 32 states had lower estimated construction unemployment rates than in November, 17 states had higher rates, and one (Maryland) had the same rate.

The following five states had the lowest estimated NSA construction unemployment rates for December:

1. Maryland, 0.5 percent
2. Georgia, 1.7 percent
3. Utah, 1.9 percent
4. Delaware and Tennessee (tie), 2.1 percent

Maryland and Georgia each posted their lowest December NSA estimated construction unemployment rate on record. Utah had its second lowest December rate, behind the previous year’s 1.8 percent. Delaware and Tennessee both came in with their lowest December rate on record for the second time (Delaware matching its December 2018 rate and Tennessee its 2022 rate). Notably, Delaware’s unemployment rate is for construction, mining, and logging.

The following five states had the highest December 2023 estimated NSA construction unemployment rates:

46. Vermont, 7.3 percent
47. Illinois, 7.5 percent
48. Alaska, 9.4 percent
49. Connecticut, 10.5 percent
50. Rhode Island, 11.3 percent

Alaska posted its lowest December NSA estimated construction unemployment rate on record and had the largest monthly decline in its rate (down 4.8 percent). Vermont had the third largest year-over-year drop in its unemployment rate, down 2.6 percent, behind South Dakota (down 3.4 percent) and Minnesota (down 2.8 percent).

Click here for graphs of U.S. and state overall unemployment rates (Tab 1) and construction unemployment rates (Tab 2) showing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, including a graphing tool that creates a chart for multiple states.[3]

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