The American Institute of Architects (AIA) has published Clarifying the Construction Outlook by Integrating Architecture Billings with Broader Economic Indicators, a white paper examining the performance of the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI).
Launched in 2005, the ABI links architecture firm billings to future construction activity. AIA says that its latest analysis finds that billings are still linked to construction spending, but the relationship is slightly weaker, and the lead time is longer. Longer project schedules, supply-chain challenges, cost inflation, interest-rate volatility, and economic uncertainty can all affect when projects move from design to construction.
For contractors, developers, owners, and suppliers, the takeaway is to use the ABI as one planning signal, not a stand-alone forecast. AIA recommends viewing it alongside construction spending and starts, material costs, real estate trends, and its Consensus Construction Forecast to assess market conditions and inform business decisions.
